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The relatively warm weather in October-November has helped in people being out and about including at least going to the malls. The auto dealers are reporting a 5% increase in auto sales in October and all the great auto deals has helped.The October retail numbers are at 1.2% up and you will see far more people in the US malls compared to last year- so the November numbers should be better. Excluding auto sales, the retail sector is up 0.4% for October.
Although unemployment is stuck at 9.6 % mass layoffs are not expected and private sector employment has gone up by 0.3% the first increase since 2008.
Consumer confidence is definitely up in that people are at least going out to the malls . The National Retail Federation has predicted higher sales this holiday season and all this means that there should be some pull on the supply chain and businesses should hire more and the unemployment rate might just come down.